薛景, 陈大伟, 万辛. 急性缺血性脑卒中后急性肾损伤预测模型的构建[J]. 临床肾脏病杂志, 2024, 24(6): 475-483. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2390.2024.06.006
    引用本文: 薛景, 陈大伟, 万辛. 急性缺血性脑卒中后急性肾损伤预测模型的构建[J]. 临床肾脏病杂志, 2024, 24(6): 475-483. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2390.2024.06.006
    Xue Jing, Chen Da-wei, Wan Xin. Construction of a predictive model for acute kidney injury after acute ischemic stroke[J]. Journal of Clinical Nephrology, 2024, 24(6): 475-483. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2390.2024.06.006
    Citation: Xue Jing, Chen Da-wei, Wan Xin. Construction of a predictive model for acute kidney injury after acute ischemic stroke[J]. Journal of Clinical Nephrology, 2024, 24(6): 475-483. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2390.2024.06.006

    急性缺血性脑卒中后急性肾损伤预测模型的构建

    Construction of a predictive model for acute kidney injury after acute ischemic stroke

    • 摘要:
      目的  探讨急性缺血性脑卒中(acute ischemic stroke,AIS)患者发生急性肾损伤(acute kidney injury,AKI)的危险因素,并构建预测模型。
      方法  回顾性收集2022年1月1日至2023年12月31日南京医科大学附属南京医院神经内科708例AIS住院患者作为训练集。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归模型来优化临床特征选择。应用多因素Logistic回归分析来构建Nomogram预测模型,采用受试者工作特征曲线、曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)、校准曲线及决策曲线评价模型预测价值。采用bootstrap重复抽样法进行内部验证,南京医科大学附属逸夫医院2022年6月1日至2023年5月31日卒中中心97例AIS住院患者进行外部验证。
      结果  本研究结果显示,合并急性呼吸衰竭(OR = 3.104,95%CI:1.276~7.759,P = 0.013),血尿素氮(OR = 1.099,95%CI:1.012~1.215,P = 0.042)、D-二聚体(OR = 1.027,95%CI:1.003~1.554,P = 0.046)和单核细胞计数(OR = 2.229,95%CI:1.119~4.941,P = 0.044)水平升高,抗生素(OR = 3.770,95%CI:1.608~9.549,P = 0.003)、利尿剂(OR = 2.681,95%CI:1.550~4.709,P<0.001)、机械通气(OR = 4.616,95%CI:2.101~10.283,P<0.001)和甘露醇(OR = 2.552,95%CI:1.457~4.470,P = 0.001)的使用是AIS患者发生AKI的独立危险因素。基于以上8个变量构建预测模型,该模型AUC为0.877(95%CI:0.844~0.910),在内部验证和外部验证中分别可达到0.875(95%CI:0.844~0.911)和0.798(95%CI:0.679~0.917)的AUC值。校准曲线显示模型校准良好,决策曲线分析表明模型具有一定的临床实用性。
      结论  本研究构建了新的AIS后AKI发生风险的预测模型,可以方便有效地用于AIS患者AKI发生风险的预测。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective  To explore the risk factors of acute kidney injury (AKI) through a predictive model in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).
      Methods  From January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, a total of 708 AIS hospitalized patients were retrospectively recruited as training set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was utilized for optimizing the selection of clinical profiles. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed for constructing a Nomogram prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic curve, area under curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analyses were utilized for evaluating the predictive value of the model. Bootstrap repeated sampling method was employed for internal validation. And 97 AIS inpatients from June 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023 at Stroke Center of Affiliated Sir Run Run Hospital, Nanjing Medical University were utilized for external validation.
      Results  Concurrent acute respiratory failure (OR = 3.104, 95%CI:1.276-7.759, P = 0.013), elevated levels of blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.099, 95%CI:1.012-1.215, P = 0.042), D-dimer (OR = 1.027, 95%CI:1.003-1.554, P = 0.046) and monocyte count (OR = 2.229, 95%CI:1.119-4.941, P = 0.044), dosing of antibiotics (OR = 3.770, 95%CI:1.608-9.549, P = 0.003) and diuretics (OR = 2.681, 95%CI:1.550-4.709, P<0.001), mechanical ventilation (OR = 4.616, 95%CI:2.101-10.283, P<0.001) and mannitol (OR = 2.552, 95%CI:1.457-4.470, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for AKI in AIS patients . The prediction model was constructed with the above 8 variables. AUC of the model was 0.877(95%CI:0.844-0.910) could reach 0.875(95%CI:0.844-0.911) and 0.798 (95%CI:0.679-0.917) in internal and external validations respectively. Calibration curve showed that the model was well-calibrated and decision curve analysis indicated that the model had some clinical practicability.
      Conclusion  This study has constructed a novel risk prediction model for AKI after AIS. It is both convenient and effective.

       

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