血液透析患者蛋白质-能量消耗风险预测模型的构建及验证

    Construction and validation of a risk predictive model for protein-energy wasting in hemodialysis patients

    • 摘要:
      目的  调查分析血液透析患者蛋白质-能量消耗(protein-energy wasting,PEW)的发生率和危险因素,并构建可视化的风险预测模型和预测性能验证。
      方法  收集2020年2月至2023年2月在中国人民解放军东部战区总医院血液净化中心维持性血液透析患者313例为研究对象,透析时间至少6个月,根据国际肾脏营养与代谢学会关于PEW的诊断标准分为PEW组125例和无PEW组188例。单因素比较两组患者的临床资料和血生化指标,并采用Logistic回归模型筛选PEW的危险因素,R软件建立列线图模型,采用Bootstrap法进行内部验证,绘制受试者工作特征曲线计算曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)和C-指数评估模型的准确度,校准曲线评估一致性,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断拟合优度。
      结果  单因素分析发现,PEW组女性和糖尿病增多,N末端B型利钠肽原(N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide, NT-proBNP)和尿素清除指数增加,而受教育时间、体重指数、上臂肌围、膳食蛋白摄入量、白蛋白、血肌酐和尿素氮、总胆固醇(total cholesterol,TC)、维生素D和血红蛋白降低(P<0.05)。单因素和多因素回归分析显示,女性(OR = 1.571,95%CI:1.060~2.330,P = 0.023)和NT-proBNP(OR = 1.493,95%CI:1.045~2.133,P = 0.032)是PEW的危险因素,而TC(OR = 0.820,95%CI:0.704~0.956,P = 0.003)和维生素D(OR = 0.882,95%CI:0.623~0.987,P<0.001)是保护因素。受试者工作特征曲线显示,列线图预测PEW的AUC为0.867(95%CI:0.812~0.952,P<0.001),C-指数为0.875。并且列线图有较好的一致性和拟合优度。
      结论  维持性血液透析患者往往有较高的PEW发生风险,根据性别、NT-proBNP、TC和维生素D构建一款列线图模型,对指导临床评估PEW发生风险有较好的应用潜能。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective  To explore the incidence and risk factors of protein-energy wasting (PEW) in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) and construct a visual risk predictive model and verify its predictive performance.
      Methods  From February 2020 to February 2023, 313 MHD patients were recruited and assigned into two groups of PEW (n = 125) and non-PEW (n = 188) based upon the diagnostic criteria of PEW by International Society of Renal Nutrition and Metabolism (ISRNM). The relevant clinical data and blood biochemical tests of two groups were compared by single factor and PEW risk factors screened by Logistic regression model. R software was utilized for establishing a nomogram model. Bootstrap method was employed for internal verification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted for calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and C-index utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the model. Calibration curve was employed for evaluating the consistency and Hosmer-Lemeshow test for determining goodness of fit.
      Results  Single factor comparison revealed that females and diabetes mellitus predominated in PEW group. NT-proBNP and urea clearance index rose while education time, body mass index (BMI), mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC), dietary protein intake (DPI), albumin, serum creatinine, urea nitrogen, total cholesterol (TC), vitamin D and hemoglobin declined (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate regression analysis revealed that females (OR = 1.571, 95%CI: 1.060-1.464, P = 0.023) and NT-proBNP (OR = 1.493, 95%CI: 1.045-2.133, P = 0.032) were risk factors for PEW while TC (OR = 0.820, 95%CI: 0.704-0.956, P = 0.003) and vitamin D (OR = 0.882, 95%CI: 0.818-0.953, P<0.001) were protective factors. ROC indicated that AUC of the model for predicting PEW was 0.867 (95%CI: 0.812-0.952, P<0.001) with a C-index of 0.875. Moreover, the model had excellent consistency and goodness of fit.
      Conclusion  MHD patients tend to have a higher risk of PEW. And nomogram model based upon gender, NT-proBNP, TC and vitamin D has great potential for guiding clinical risk assessment of PEW.

       

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