胃切除术后继发急性肾损伤的危险因素及其对急性肾损伤的预测价值

    Risk factors of acute kidney injury after gastrectomy and its predictive value

    • 摘要:
      目的  探讨胃切除术后继发急性肾损伤(acute kidney injury,AKI)的危险因素,构建胃切除术后AKI的预测模型,为临床工作中预测AKI和指导胃切除术的决策提供帮助。
      方法  本回顾性研究纳入2020年1月至2022年6月于青岛大学附属医院接受过胃切除术的患者。收集患者临床资料,通过正向逐步Logistic回归、多因素Logistic回归结果确定胃切除术后AKI的独立危险因素,建立胃切除术后继发AKI的列线图,利用一致性指数和校准曲线评估和验证预测模型的能力。
      结果  本研究最终纳入的研究对象有1871例,其中有100例在胃切除术后发生AKI,1771例未发生,胃切除术后AKI的发生率为5.34%。逐步回归后,得到白蛋白、血钠、估算肾小球滤过率、收缩压等预测指标,基于上述预测指标构建多因素Logistic回归模型,结果显示白蛋白<30 g/L、收缩压>140 mmHg(1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa)、合并泌尿系结石、术前阿司匹林用药史、围手术期输血等是胃切除术后AKI的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。根据多因素Logistic回归结果建立列线图,结果显示该预测模型能准确预测胃切除术后AKI的发生。初始模型及内部验证一致性指数分别为0.805(95%CI:0.758~0.852),0.816(95%CI:0.815~0.816),校准曲线显示预测概率与实际概率高度一致。
      结论  基于估算肾小球滤过率、白蛋白、血清钠浓度、收缩压、围手术期输血、阿司匹林用药史、合并泌尿系结石建立的胃切除后AKI的预测模型有良好的效能,有利于临床医生在术前识别术后继发AKI的高危患者。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective  To explore the risk factors of secondary acute kidney injury (AKI) after gastrectomy and construct a practical model for predicting AKI and guiding decision-making in clinical practices.
      Methods  From January 2020 to June 2022, the relevant clinical data were collected retrospectively from 1871 AKI patients after gastrectomy. Various independent risk factors of AKI after gastrectomy were determined by positive stepwise Logistic and multifactorial Logistic regressions and a nomogram prediction model was established. The capability of prediction model was evaluated and validated by C-index and calibration curve.
      Results  A total of 1871 patients were finally recruited. One hundred subjects developed AKI after gastrectomy with an incidence of 5.34%. After stepwise regressions of albumin, blood sodium, estimated glomerular filtration rate and systolic blood pressure, a multifactorial Logistic regression model was constructed. Albumin <30 g/L, SBP>140 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), a previous history of urolithiasis and preoperative aspirin dosing and perioperative blood transfusion were independent risk factors for AKI after gastrectomy (all P<0.05). The predictive model could accurately predict the occurrence of AKI after gastrectomy. C-Index of initial model and internal validation were 0.805(95%CI: 0.758−0.852) and 0.816(95%CI:0.815−0.816) respectively. Calibration curve indicated that predicted probability was highly consistent with actual probability.
      Conclusion  Based upon eGFR, albumin, blood sodium, SBP, perioperative blood transfusion, preoperative aspirin dosing and urolithiasis, the prediction model of AKI after gastrectomy offers an excellent potency. It helps clinicians to identify high-risk AKI patients after gastrectomy.

       

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