预测糖尿病患者并发糖尿病肾病风险的列线图模型的建立

    Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of diabetic nephropathy in diabetic patients

    • 摘要: 目的 探究2型糖尿病(type 2 diabetes mellitus,T2DM)患者并发糖尿病肾病(diabetic nephropathy,DN)的危险因素,开发和验证一种辅助临床预测DN的可视化评价工具。方法 选取符合标准的2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者559例,其中单纯T2DM 组(对照组)280例和合并微量白蛋白尿组(DN组) 279例。收集临床资料,采用单因素分析筛选DN相关因素,将有统计学意义变量纳入多因素Logistic回归模型,分析DN危险因素;应用R软件构建预测DN风险的列线图模型,采用Bootstrap法进行验证,并绘制ROC曲线,计算C-指数评估模型预测性能。通过绘制预测结果与实际结果的校正曲线,进行一致性测试。使用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断模型的拟合优度,P>0.05表明模型的拟合优度较好。结果 年龄、糖尿病病程、中性粒细胞计数、贫血、三酰甘油、体质量指数、糖尿病性周围神经病(diabetic peripheral neuropathy,DPN)、促甲状腺激素(thyroid stimulating hormone,TSH)与DN的发生有关(均P<0.05),老年人、TSH>4.6 mU/L、三酰甘油≥1.7 mmol/L、糖尿病性周围神经病、糖尿病病程>1年是T2DM并发DN的独立危险因素(均P<0.05),将这些因素纳入并成功构建了列线图。列线图模型预测效能好,ROC曲线下面积为0.852(95%CI=0.822~0.882),内部验证C-指数为0.846。校正曲线显示预测结果与实际结果的相关性良好(P=0.178)。结论 本次研究构建的个体化预测DN早期患者风险的列线图模型,具有良好区分度,临床应用价值高,对甄别DN高风险人群,制订干预对策具有指导意义。

       

      Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk factors of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes,and to develop and verify a visidualized evaluation tool to assist in clinical prediction of diabetic nephropathy.Methods A total of 559 patients with type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who met the criteria were selected, including 280 patients in the alone T2DM group (control group) and 279 patients in the complicated microalbuminuria group (DN group). Clinical data were collected, and factors related to diabetic nephropathy (DN) were screened by univariate analysis. Statistically significant variables were included in multivariate logistic regression model to analyze DN risk factors. R-software was used to construct a nomogram model for predicting DN risk. Bootstrap was used to verify the model, to plot the ROC curve, and to calculate the predictive performance of the C-index evaluation model. Conformance testing is performed by plotting the calibration curves of the predicted and actual results. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to judge the goodness of fit of the model. P>0.05 indicates that the model has good goodness of fit. Results Age, course of diabetes, neutrophil count, anemia, triglycerides, body mass index, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and thyroid stimulating hormone(TSH) were associated with the development of diabetic nephropathy(both P<0.05), and aging, TSH>4.6 mU/L, triglyceride ≥ 1.7 mmol/L, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and diabetes course >1 year were independent risk factors for T2DM complicated with DN(both P<0.05). These factors were included and a nomogram model was successfully constructed. The nomogram model had good prediction performance, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.852 (95% CI=0.822 to 0.882) and an internal verification C-index of 0.846.The calibration curve showed a good correlation between the predicted results and the actual results (P=0.178).Conclusions The individualized nomogram model for predicting the early risk of DN patients constructed in this study has a high resolution and high clinical application value. It has guiding significance for screening high-risk population with DN and formulating intervention strategies.

       

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